MU-AMS Weather Forum

MattMo · Joined: 18 Nov 2008 Posts: 10

Looks like a storm is going to develop down in the gulf and ride northward and intensify along the SE Coast. As per the 0z (above images), looks like we'll see a pretty good snowstorm. Of course, it's 7 days away so it's very hard to tell. Good sign this far out Smile

RStauffer · Joined: 03 Jul 2006 Posts: 8

I noticed it too, it's been on the last few runs. Right now the 12z cuts it west like every other storm this year but I guess we can hope and be glad it's still a long way out
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Homer: Uh huh. And "if"?

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MattMo · Joined: 18 Nov 2008 Posts: 10

UKMET has it slightly inland..roughly on top of Washington D.C. If this were to verify, it would be a rain event for us here in Millersville, but points 50 miles west of Harrisburg would get slammed. Also, notice how tight the LP is, someone is going to get blizzard conditions Shocked

cnmeute · Joined: 20 Nov 2008 Posts: 3

Matt where are you getting these pictures and how do you know so much already? all i know is that on maps green is rain and white is snow.. but anyway this next storm better shift its path so we get slammed

MattMo · Joined: 18 Nov 2008 Posts: 10

I get them from different sites usually through google. I go to the accuweather.com forums and read what those guys have to say, and learn from that. It's really fun. And yes, I agree, it does need to shift a lot farther east for us to get slammed with snow. As of now we have a cold rain, strong wind storm. It's 4 days away and anything can change!

epinny · Posted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:46 am Post subject:

So i bet you guys have seen the new runs of the gfs, looks pretty sweet lol. Even the Euro is jumping on board now with more of a coastal storm idea instead of a mountain hugger.

Here is the 00z gfs image for 06z on Tuesday (that would be 1am early Tuesday morning):

There is absolutely more maps everyone should look at than just the MSLP 1000-500 mb thickness to determine where the low will track, whether or not rain or snow will fall, what the vertical temperature profile is ect, but if you're excited about snow the trend of the models last night is in our favor.

Here is the 00z Euro image valid for 00z Wednesday (Tuesday evening at 7pm):

As an fyi, if you're looking for a quick way to get some model data; wxforecaster.com is a good site to look around for model and satellite data, and more.

MattMo · Joined: 18 Nov 2008 Posts: 10

The models are trending east. Hour 108 on 06z is a dream

Too bad the temps may not be cold enough to support ALL snow, but things can change, the storm may pull in enough cold air to support it.

We should know by this weekend

RStauffer · Joined: 03 Jul 2006 Posts: 8

i think everyone should stop sitting on their thumbs and take a look at the latest model trends
_________________
Homer: What does "deadlocked" mean?

Skinner: It's when the jury can't agree on a verdict.

Homer: Uh huh. And "if"?

Skinner: A conjunction meaning "in the event that" or "on condition
that"

MPotter · Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 3:10 pm Post subject:

Thanks MattMo for starting this thread, this storm is definately worth looking at, so much drama with twists and turns. I'm sure most of you have seen the switches in the model tracks and qpf, it is getting pretty annoying, but what do you expect from them, haha. If you have seen Eric's discussions you have seen that he is being very cautious with this storm and is also comparing this to a storm in '97. I have been emailing with him, and he sent one to me concerning the mild weather today:

"I'm still somewhat concerned because we have a potent UA system with massive high falls coming in over a very mild airmass....so while the model moves the low pressure development way off shore over teh gulf stream, it may very well form back near the very mild coastal plain where it may hit 60-degrees today in Delmarva. That's exactly what happend with the 4/1/97 storm...I think even MU hit 60 on 3/30/97. So, it bares watching..."

I am guessing when he said he is "concerned", he meant that in a good way for us. I'm not too sure what he is talking about, so if one of the seniors or another person could explain what he is talking about that would be great. This storm is definitely different from any other storm I have tracked since being at MU, so the learning experience from this is exciting. Hope this ends up being a good thread!
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"For the man sound in body and serene of mind there is no such thing as bad weather; every day has its beauty, and storms which whip the blood do but make it pulse more vigorously." ~George Gissing

MattMo · Joined: 18 Nov 2008 Posts: 10

I agree it is getting very annoying with the model disagreement. I see where Eric is being cautious as this storm has HUGE bust potential. I guess snow totals that would be correct should range from 0-12 inches for us in Millersville Razz

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I understand what Eric is talking about when he says re-development near the coastal plain (basically the entire southeast coast up to the delmarva region), but I'm not sure why he mentions the importance of temperature when comparing April 1997 storm with our storm. Maybe he's saying that since temperatures are above normal, warm and moist air may lead to higher precipitation rates thus leading to higher accumulations. I'm just throwing a guess out there. Anyone have any other ideas?

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